War Games: Could China Take Taiwan?

Taiwanese television broadcast a video on Friday of a military exercise simulating the island coming under attack.

The film, produced by the defence ministry, showed Taiwanese troops firing anti-aircraft, anti-tank and anti-ship missiles in defence of the island against a mock invasion from across the Taiwan Strait, the waterway that separates it from mainland China.

Taiwan’s drill follows China’s army releasing footage of it staging live-fire exercises near both the northern and southern ends of the Taiwan Strait earlier in the week.

These exercises come amid ratched-up rhetoric between Beijing and Taipei; as it has elsewhere, Xi Jinping’s hyper-nationalism has lead to the inevitable backlash in Taipei. Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen openly rejects the landmark agreement with Beijing known as the “1992 consensus.” It works on the basis that as long as both Beijing and Taipei acknowledge that “there is only one China and Taiwan is part of China” — whether “China” means the Republic of China or the People’s Republic of China — the “status quo” between the two sides can be maintained.

Tsai was long a skeptic, but she more openly trashed the “1992 consensus” after Xi implied it should lead to a Hong Kong-like formula of “One country, two systems.” To give Tsai her due, what has happened in Hong Kong under Xi underscores the problem of giving the Chinese Communist Party any kind of a foot in the door.

Taiwanese seem numb to Beijing’s threats. The latest opinion poll in Taiwan showed 80 per cent of people don’t believe Beijing will attack the island.

Perhaps they shouldn’t be so sanguine. Real Clear Investigations published a chilling article this week on how war games simulations go; spoiler alert: in ends very badly for Taiwan and the United States.

The story outlines how many of the assumptions about how China would attack are outdated, particularly the need for a World War II like amphibious assault across the Taiwan Strait. It also delves into how the U.S. and its allies believe China will fight a war with rules — and that is leading to the wrong tactics and equipment.

In short: more planes that cost $80 million each are not what’s needed. Thousands of super fast drones that use Artificial Intelligence in both in the sky and water need to be developed … fast.