What Inspired This?
On the night of the 2020 Taiwan election, I sought perspective and analysis. What I found were stories from the NY Times, Bloomberg and Reuters. Sources that are frequently wrong, with reporters who understand almost nothing about the realities of national security or domestic policy.
Years of experience in the region is not the problem. Education is.
Most journalists (98%) have glorified English degrees and have never had a job outside journalism. They’re not qualified to cover policy, so they focus on conflict.
In the case of Taiwan’s election, the rhetorical statements of Beijing and Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen. There was no analysis of what the result meant for Taiwan or China, or what comes next.
Bloomberg breathlessly told its readers Beijing said,
“Tsai and the DPP used dirty tactics such as cheating, repression and intimidation to get votes, fully exposing their selfish, greedy and evil nature. Anti-China political forces in the West openly intervened in Taiwan’s elections and supported Tsai in order to contain the Chinese mainland and to prevent the two sides of the Taiwan Strait from getting closer.”
Strong words. But, what is China going to do about them?
We’ll explore this topic much. But the answer for medium to long-term is nothing, because it can’t. China doesn’t have the military capability right now to successfully invade and conquer Taiwan. It’s a colorful statement to look tough while it distracts from that reality. The Bloomberg story then quoted from the winner’s victory speech,
“This election is about having democracy and freedom, and not having democracy and freedom,” Tsai said.
True. It’s the existential choice for Taiwan, and all China’s neighbors. It’s politically critical for President Tsai and her party to frame the decision that way.
But trade is prosperity and proximity. That’s Taiwan’s policy reality. China is a market of 1.2 billion people and it’s about 180-kilometers (110 mi) away.
The challenge Tsai’s DPP will always have is its rival KMT can campaign on Taiwan being richer if its relationship with China is good.
Voters like prosperity. Tsai’s China policy can’t deliver that prosperity from Chinese trade. So what can she do to compensate?
It requires getting a lot of foreign and domestic choices right so voters feel the country is moving in the right direction. It’s a narrow needle to thread because what government contributes to prosperity is important, but it’s not solely determinative, or immediate. You can do the right things — and not get credit at the next election.
What makes me different?
I worked as a national network TV producer in Canada for five years. When there was a story about elections, politics or government, I covered it. I thought I was an expert.
Then, I took a communications job with the Ontario government. I was quickly exposed as a know-nothing. I had no idea how much the Ontario budget was in real dollars. I also had no idea where those dollars went:
- Health care was 40% of the total budget
- Education was another 25%
- Interest paid on debt another 25%
- And everything else existed on 10%.
That’s not because I wasn’t paying attention when our network gave the numbers and put them in context.
“People can’t make sense of big numbers,” news directors told me. “We have to make it relatable for them.”
So, when we covered a budget, we focused on how changes to the tax code would affect the price of beer or how much a tax cut would save parents on diapers or how angry parents of kids who use wheelchairs angry because they’re not getting a bigger subsidy. In other words, stories about conflict that provided no perspective and didn’t make you a better informed voter.
In government, I was an expert on how to manage those stories. But I was embarrassed to be in meetings with people who knew the real policy choices. I felt like a kid sitting at the adult’s table providing little other than spin. So, I started studying. In time, I was able to make substantive contributions and I moved from Health to Transportation.
I’ve also got an MBA and ran a little TV production company for a decade, moved to Taiwan and I’m semi-retired. So how can we better cover Asia, a region so important for the next century?
My Commitment
To help you better understand national security and domestic policy choices.
In foreign policy that means focusing on geopolitical realities like geography and the constraints leaders face.
At home that means focusing on the best practices around the world that are delivering effective change in the places that use them.
I don’t have all the answers myself. But I hope to help you with analysis and perspective that gets us all to the right questions.