Protesting Putin

Russia is a very important country in Asia we haven’t touched on much. That’s because it’s very complicated, and Western media coverage of it is very facile. Simply put, we want this site to offer accurate perspective, and Russia is a country where it’s very easy to come to the wrong conclusion. To wit: what to make about a series of protests that have broken out in recent days?

The inane New York Times (which in a fit of staff stupidity last month publicly exposed itself as a propaganda outlet comparable to China’s People’s Daily) makes it sound like Vladimir Putin’s reign could be imperiled. Here’s the “thinking” that goes into that calculation: for the New York Times, Trump = Bad. And Trump = Putin (even though the Muller Report proved otherwise.) Therefore, Putin = Bad. And since the New York Times told Americans for four years Trump was so bad he was on the verge of being removed from office, Putin must be too! If you know anyone who still reads the New York Times for anything other than a laugh, pity and disregard them.

Here’s reality: in the most serious sign of discontent, an estimated 30,000 protesters marched through the eastern Russian city of Khabarovsk over the weekend in support of local governor Sergei Furgal. On Friday, a court in Moscow ruled Furgal will be held for two months pending trial for the murders of several businessmen 15 years ago. Furgal vehemently denies any involvement.

Elected in 2018, Furgal, a Liberal-Democrat, embarrassed Putin’s ruling United Russia party by securing 70 percent of the vote. Furgal’s popularity is likely the only real “new evidence” in the murder cases. Serving or former governors are often prosecuted in Russia. In the past decade, at least 10 governors have been sentenced to prison or are currently under arrest pending trial. It’s one way Putin gets rid of any potential competition.

Well-lined pockets, indeed …

According to reports, the rally was also fueled by broader anti-Kremlin sentiments too, with people chanting anti-Putin slogans.

The demonstration is also notable because it’s unprecedented for almost any Russian city outside Moscow and St. Petersburg. More than 40,000 people have also signed a petition demanding Furgal's release. Note that putting your name on an anti-government document is a risky move in Putin’s Russia. Smaller rallies were held in other cities in Khabarovsk region, reports said.

Elsewhere in Russia, there were protests against constitutional changes, one of which would allow Putin to run for reelection in 2024. Those took place in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Blagoveshchensk, Khanty-Mansiysk, Nizhny Novgorod, and Novosibirsk, among other cities.

What does history tell us about Russians and regime change?

Russia had feudalism until 1871; that was about 500 years after peasants in Western Europe had stopped living on their lord's land as serfs, giving him free labor, a share of the produce, and homage. Think about that again. It took Russians an extra half millennium to stop living as virtual slaves.

The end of Russian feudalism took place without violence, its proclamation by Tsar Alexander II. Note that only in Russia could a transformational policy like this be implemented so badly: the peasants had to pay a high fee in installments to the crown for their emancipation, which left them no money for anything else; the aristocracy didn’t get enough money from the liberated economy and payments from crown to fund its lavish lifestyle. The result: the economy shrank, and everyone was furious with the Tsar. Despite that rare moment of Tsarist enlightenment, Russians put up with the most brutal, venal and incompetent monarchy in Europe, if not Eurasia, until they finally exploded in 1917, replacing it with something worse — the Soviet Union. Both examples underscore why Russians believe as bad as the present may be, change may not be an improvement.

While the momentous of events from 1989 to 1991, in which communism disappeared across Eastern Europe, ended with unarmed Russians blocking tanks in Moscow’s Red Square, the Russian people rarely took the streets in those pivotal months. The Soviet Communist Party coughed and died, collapsing under the weight of Marxism’s brutality, contradictions, and inability to deliver a better life. Seems the Russian elite looked the other side of the Iron Curtain, and wanted jeans and Volvos, too. (Geopolitical analysts say low oil prices and high military spending were the real reason the Soviet Union fell. Recall that on June 4, 1989 in Beijing’s Tienanmen Square, when facing a similar existential moment, the Chinese Communist party used its tanks to mow demonstrators down. Consider what Beijing did to its protestors as you decide for yourself whether the Soviet “elite” simply quit.)

How does this apply to the stability of the Putin regime?

Russia’s economy is dependent on oil, and its price has been battered by Covid-19. The reason Russia’s economy is so resource dependent is rule of law is non-existent. Have a successful business venture? One of Putin’s cronies will soon be your “partner.” This is the historic Russian problem: why till the field if you don’t get to keep the fruits of your labor? Tsarism, Leninism and Putinism are all kleptocracy. Russians expect their government will act like the mafia.

Yet, despite the falling price of oil, Russia’s macroeconomy shows few signs of collapse. This is because it has already been self-isolating for the past six years; ever since Putin annexed Crimea from Ukraine, the West has imposed sanctions on Russia.

Death by drinking is down … don’t underestimate what that means in Russia.

Since then, Russia’s macroeconomic goal has been not to foster growth, but rather to build a fortress economy that could withstand a severe shock. Underpinning this policy was a fiscal rule in 2017 that required the budget to balance with an oil price slightly over $40 a barrel. Anything above that figure was funneled into a rainy-day fund which had reached 7.3% of GDP on March 1st. While the price of oil is down by one-third since January, today it’s $39.55 a barrel.

As a result, Russia sits on one of the world’s largest gold and foreign-exchange reserves, worth nearly US $570 billion.

Obviously, money put into a rainy day fund and kept in reserve is money not being spent on the Russia people, who could use some help. Russia’s statistics agency, Rosstat, says 14.1 percent of Russians, which makes 20.9 million people, cannot afford to buy anything but food. The percentage of people at risk of experiencing extreme poverty is much higher, however; nearly 50 percent of Russians say they can afford to buy only food and clothing.

Elsewhere, that might sow the seeds of revolution. However, it’s nowhere close to being as inept as Leninism. Or Tsarism. In Putin’s Russia, drinking is down and life-expectancy is up. If you want to understand Russia in a nutshell, those are two telling metrics. And to give Putin his due as a student of history, he’s kept the elites pockets very well-lined. They will not quit.

Add it all up and while there’s discontent, it seems like the perpetual grumblings of a people who have an unnatural tolerance for misrule, venality and incompetence rather than a harbinger of anything that truly poses a threat to regime. Russians have a very, very long fuse.

As for the “august” New York Times, it continues to employ as its top foreign affairs expert Thomas Friedman, who wrote in 2002: “China’s going to have a free press. Globalization will drive it.”

Charitably, that typifies its surreal and childish analysis.