Rock The Karabakh
Deadly clashes have broken out again between Islamic Azerbaijan and Christian Armenia across their contentious border in the Caucus Mountains.
Eleven Azeri soldiers and a civilian, and four Armenian servicemen, have died since Sunday in Nagorno-Karabakh. Nagorno-Karabakh is a disputed territory, internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but mostly governed by the Republic of Artsakh, a de facto independent state with an Armenian ethnic majority that gets significant support from Armenia.
Ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh declared independence from Azerbaijan during a conflict that broke out as the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. Though a ceasefire was agreed in 1994, former Soviet republics Azerbaijan and Armenia often do battle there and along their border.
Why the latest trouble has started is not entirely clear. Each side blamed the other. Far more interesting is how strongly Turkey reacted. Turkey usually plays coy over Nagorno-Karabakh.
You might not expect that given Azerbaijanis are brother Muslims, and Turkey has a tortured history with Armenians. When Armenia was part of the Ottoman Empire, the Turks systemically killed one million Armenians. Since gaining independence from the Soviet Union, Armenians have been a thorn in Ankara’s side by reminding the world of that appalling genocide.
But Turkey generally sees the Caucuses as a tinderbox where little can be gained, but much can be lost if it results in conflict with nuclear armed Russia.
Russia sees the Caucuses as a key part of the buffer zone that has saved it from foreign invasions, which is why is moved decisively in 2008 to stop Georgia’s flirtation with the West generally and NATO specifically.
But this week, Ankara showed little restraint; Turkish President Recep Erodgan immediately condemned Armenia, and called Yerevan“reckless.” He upped his rhetoric significantly Friday, pledging to help Azerbaijan, “Armenia is continuously targeting Azerbaijan’s civilian areas. We will certainly not leave brother Azerbaijan alone. Armenia is an invader.”
As we've pointed out, Erdogan is in a precarious position. Turkey’s foreign currency reserves, which are used to pay for imports, have stabilized after falling for months to dangerous levels because the price of oil has dropped. But analysts believe it’s a matter of time before they start to plunge again, and the Turkish Lira will have to be devalued by 15 to 20 percent. If that happens, Turkey’s standard of living will fall precipitously.
The increasingly dictatorial Erdogan has been in power for 18 years. His party lost key elections in Istanbul last year in humiliating fashion after Erdogan nullified the original ballot, and forced a re-vote, which his Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost again.
Erdogan has made it the Haj-ia Sofia
Looking for issues to rouse his nationalist Muslim base, Erdogan this week turned the world-famous Hagia Sophia museum in Istanbul back into a mosque. Built 1,500 years ago as an Orthodox Christian cathedral, Hagia Sophia was converted into a mosque after the Ottoman conquest in 1453. It has been a museum since 1934.
That leads to Russia, spiritual home of the Orthodox church. Patriarch Krill, head of the Russian Orthodox Church strongly condemned the decision and said, “The threat to Hagia Sophia is a threat to the Christian civilization and, by extension, to our spirituality and history. Still today, for any Russian Orthodox, St. Sophia Cathedral is one of Christianity’s greatest sacred places.”
The Kremlin initially tried to downplay the issue. Russia's deputy foreign minister Sergei Vershinin said, "We proceed from the fact that this is a Turkish internal affair in which neither us nor others should interfere." But then, Vladimir Putin raised the Hagia Sofia in phone call with Erdogan, saying the decision triggered “considerable public outcry in Russia.”
Russia generally tries to play the voice of reason between Armenia and Azerbaijan. But with Erdogan taking such a strong position, Putin is in a vice.
As we pointed out this week, he has his own domestic political problems. There have been protests across Russia on a variety of issues over the last few weeks. The Russian macroeconomy remains stable, but it has come at the expense of domestic spending, and about half of Russians say they struggle to get by.
If Erdogan backs the Muslim Azerbaijanis with any material support against the Christian Armenians, Putin will have to react. Russian nationalists angry about the Hagia Sofia are also still sore with Ankara over a Russian jet fighter shot down by a Turkish F-16 near the Syria–Turkey border in November of 2015. It also must be clear to the Kremlin that Erdogan has been increasingly assertive since paying little price for the incident.
Moscow and Ankara are butting heads in Syria and Libya, this just creates another active fault line.
This site is premised on the fact world leaders mostly follow interests, and that rhetoric doesn’t matter much. The wise play for both Ankara and Moscow in the Caucuses is to keep these states as a quiet buffer between them. Iran also borders on both Armenia and Azerbaijan, and won’t be idle long if stability is threatened.
But this is where politics can trump interests. Politically, Erdogan needs to change the subject, and this issue is tailor made for him. Putin can’t be seen by his people to back down — Russian nationalists and the Orthodox Church are a crucial part of his base. Both will want to walk right up to the danger line, without crossing it. Always hazardous.
What to watch here is what kind of support Ankara delivers to Azerbaijan. If it’s anything other than moral, it could lead to a sharp proxy war in the Caucuses with potential to escalate.