Need To Know: June 17
India and China stand on the brink, after fierce hand-to-hand combat between their armies in the contested Galwan Valley lead to dozens of deaths.
India says at least 20 of its soldiers are dead, including 2 officers. China has not acknowledged casualties, but India claims multiple Chinese dead. Several Indian soldiers, including four officers, are missing and may have been taken captive by China.
It appears 250 Chinese armed with sharp sticks ambushed a patrol of 50 Indian soldiers. Troops stationed along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) typically do not carry firearms, per protocols agreed upon by both sides.
The clash followed a meeting between Chinese and Indian commanders to de-escalate the crisis. The best description of what happened comes from the Economic Times of India:
“Sources said that the talks on Monday morning had led to an agreement for Chinese forces to withdraw from Indian territory as part of the disengagement.
The Commanding Officer had gone to the standoff point with a party of 50 men to check if the Chinese had retreated as promised. As the Indian side proceeded to demolish and burn illegal Chinese structures on its side of the LAC, including an observation post constructed on the South bank of the river, a fresh stand off took place as a large force of Chinese troops returned back.
Sources said that a Chinese force in excess of 250 quickly assembled near Patrol Point 14 (see map) and were physically stopped by Indian soldiers from entering Indian territory. Soldiers from both sides did not use firearms but the Chinese soldiers carried spiked sticks to attack.
Given the terrain of the region, a part of the standoff and clash took place in the middle of the Galwan river that is currently flowing at full spate, leading to high casualties as injured soldiers got swept away. Indian soldiers have to cross the Galwan river at at least five points to reach Patrol Point 14.”
Was this a Chinese set-up?
Time will tell. But these facts jump out at me:
A meeting between Chinese and Indian commanders had been held to discuss the location where the clashes occurred. Seems China knew the Indians would be coming.
China also knows Indian troops do not have firearms.
When 50 Indian soldiers went to see if the Chinese had left as agreed upon, they were attacked by 250 Chinese armed with sharp sticks. Five-to-one is a very advantageous ratio for hand-to-hand combat.
Seems very duplicitous, and Sun Tzu to me. Call it textbook China.
How India moved troops into a contested area without backup, and let themselves get out manned five-to-one is a question for Indian leadership.
The trouble started last month when India started road construction near an area claimed by both sides. In early May, border troops engaged in fist fights and stone-throwing. China then set up more than 80 tents, established defensive positions, and put reinforcements on the Indian side of the Galwan Valley.
The deaths are the first fatalities in four decades from the simmering conflict along the 3,500 kilometre undemarcated border between the nuclear-armed neighbors, known as the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
What is China up to?
As we have said, Xi Jinping is under pressure for badly mismanaging the Chinese economy. His number two man and top rival publicly punched him in the nose about it at the annual National People's Congress last month. Xi needs a distraction, and has been trying to engineer a nationalist one in the Galwan Valley. But he may have gotten more than he bargained for.
China surrounded …
If nothing else, this will push India toward the Quad — a proposed alliance of itself, America, Japan and Australia to deal with Chinese ambitions.
Historically dubious of alliances generally and America specifically, India has been the most reluctant partner in the Quad. Yet, it’s the critical one because India is best positioned to cut off the vital flow of Chinese oil from the Persian Gulf.
If the other three members don’t have to do that in a conflict, it gives them many more assets to use against China in the Pacific. And forces China to deploy many more of its own to the Indian Ocean.
Xi may be the worst geopolitical tactician since Germany’s Kaiser Wilhelm. In the run up to World War I, the Kaiser managed to get Britain and France to set aside 1,000 years of rivalry and war to form an alliance to check Germany; by insulting the Tsar, he then added to the Franco-British coalition the absolute monarchy of Russia, which had a very dim view of the example democratic France and Britain set for the Russian people.
In a dictatorship, he who controls the guns runs the show. But it must be apparent to many wise Chinese that Xi’s short-term efforts to bolster himself are damaging the country’s long-term position.