Need To Know: April 26
Kim Watch
Kim Jong Un hasn’t made any public appearances since April 11, including skipping a commemoration of his grandfather’s birthday on April 15, which is one of the biggest holidays of the year in North Korea.
Seoul continues to insist that everything in North Korea seems normal, but South Korea’s defense chief did say the North has shown “an unusual increase” in inspections of its artillery positions and air force flight operations. South Korean media outlets say an outbreak of COVID-19 in Kim’s inner circle sent Kim scurrying to the beach resort town of Wonsan.
China has stopped trains running into North Korea until May 21. This is likely Covid-19 related, but since China fears that major destabilization in the North would trigger a tsunami of refugees, one could read this as Beijing preparing to need to rush its own troops to the border.
Kim Yo-jong: next Dear Leader?
In 2012, Chinese President Xi Jingping disappeared for about two weeks fueling speculation of illness or even an assassination attempt. Turned out he had a dodgy back.
Speculation is meaningless. Any new North Korean leader has the same cards to play as Kim. The only real question from the outside is who will be playing those cards.
It’s not entirely clear if Kim has children. (Keep in mind, he attend school incognito in Switzerland.) If he does, they are very young. Kim’s sister Kim Yo-jong preserves family lineage.
She has held high profile jobs — but also been demoted from them.
At home, she has performed the role of propagandist-in-chief. Abroad, she accompanied Kim to his two summits with President Trump, but apparently paid a price when nuclear diplomacy suffered a setback. Last weekend, she was reinstated to the party’s powerful politburo, according to the state Korean Central News Agency, just over a year after she had reportedly been removed from the position and told to keep a low profile following the failure of the Hanoi denuclearisation summit.
High ranking women have been few and far between in North Korea. Precluding a woman wouldn’t be strictly speaking Marxist, but as with all things in this situation, time will tell.
China Exodus Begins?
Consumer products maker Iris Ohyama is set to become the first Japanese company to receive a government subsidy to shift production out of China.
The company will produce face masks at its plant in Northeastern Japan. It will use non-woven fabric, so the masks can be made without overseas suppliers.
Currently, Iris Ohyama produces face masks at two factories in China, shipping 80 million units a month to Japan.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has come out in support of investments to build more resilient supply chains. Total investment for launching mask production in Japan will increase to 3 billion yen from the initial plan of 1 billion yen. Iris hopes to have subsidies cover roughly 75% of initial production.
There are reasons for businesses to stay in China: namely, it’s a 1.3 billion person market with a large, educated and relatively cheap workforce. Beijing will retaliate against companies that leave by denying market access.
Even so, this will likely be just the start of foreign governments helping their companies move production out of the People’s Republic.
Hong Kong Bookstore Closed By China Reopens in Taiwain
A Hong Kong bookseller who defied mainland China reopened his bookshop in Taiwan on Saturday, despite being attacked by thugs earlier in the week.
Lam Wing-kee: In the crosshairs?
In 2015, Lam Wing-kee was abducted in Hong Kong, taken into China and interrogated for months by Chinese officials. Five other Hong Kong booksellers were similarly treated for selling a wide range of books forbidden in China, including those about the financial dealings of Xi Jinping’s family. The bookstore became popular with mainland Chinese tourists for this reason.
Lam was eventually released on bail and allowed to return to Hong Kong in June 2016 to recover information about his customers stored on a computer. After refusing to return to China, he went public with his abduction.
Free speech is protected by law in Hong Kong, but books that displease China have largely disappeared from mainstream book retailers under pressure from Beijing.
Lam fled to Taiwan last year for fear he would be sent back to China under Hong Kong's proposed extradition bill, which sparked months of street protests.
Taiwanese authorities say the reopening of the bookshop is a symbol of democracy and freedom in Taiwan, and Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen sent Lam a message of support.
The story bears watching because the opening came days after a masked man threw red paint at Lam Wing-kee while he sat alone at a coffee shop. Lam suffered no physical injuries and showed little sign of the attack other than a red tint to his hair. Three men have been arrested in connection with Lam’s assault, but so far no motive has been disclosed.