Beijing’s Dam Troubles
Pictures taken on Thursday appear to show buckling
As torrential rains wreak havoc across China, experts warn the world’s largest dam could collapse at the Three Gorges.
Beijing admits the 1.4 miles wide and 630 feet high Three Gorges Dam, which spans the Yangtze River in Hubei province, “deformed slightly” after record flooding. The official Xinhua News Agency quoted the operator saying that some nonstructural, peripheral parts of the dam had buckled. In the People’s Republic, if officials strongly deny there’s a problem, you know there’s a problem; if they admit there’s a problem, you know it’s a major problem.
Noted Chinese hydrologist Wang Weiluo, who has long expressed safety concerns about the Three Gorges Project, points out design, construction, and quality inspection were all carried out by the same group of people. That’s not how a mega-project with potential for disaster if its fails should be done; each of those functions should be carried out by separate entities, who act as a check on each other.
Wang says cracks and substandard concrete were ignored during the dam’s construction, and he claims they have only gotten worse over time. China is noted for its shoddy construction at home and abroad.
A video by Chinese financial news site Caijing Lengyan simulated the devastating flooding that would occur if the dam collapsed. It is terrifying.
Due to the presence of steep mountains on both banks of the river, the flood waters cannot be dispersed. Experts say the speed of the water would exceed 60 miles per hour.
The video predicts the city of Yichang, 30 miles (50 kilometers) downstream would be buried under 30 feet of water. The rampaging water continues to move along the Yangtze River, submerging towns along the way at a speed of at least 35 mph. Reformed by mountains, the height of the flood at this stage would be about 45-60 feet.
Eventually, the water gushes out of the mountain valleys and spreads out on the open plains. After wiping out several more cities, it would hit the large Chinese city of Wuhan, origin of Covid-19 and home to 11 million people. It’s estimated that when the floodwaters arrive in Wuhan they will still be 20 feet high. Although some urban areas of the city on high ground will be spared, most of the city will be submerged under floodwaters.
A tsunami-like wave from a breach in the Three Gorges Dam would also wipe out millions of acres of farmland right before the autumn harvest, possibly leading to famine. Since it’s also the world’s largest hydroelectric power station, a failure would lead to huge power outages. Low-lying cities of millions along the Yangtze’s banks cities could become uninhabitable, and the death toll could be staggering.
China’s heartland manufacturing and inland shipping along the Yangtze, which empties out into the East China Sea at Shanghai, would be significantly affected by downriver flooding, potentially leading to major economic disruption inside China and around the world.
Of course, this is in the event the dam is allowed to fail entirely. The real public policy decision is at what point will engineers admit the dam will collapse and attempt something like a controlled breach. The goal would be to puncture part of the dam to let 40 to 60 percent of the water run off. While this would prevent total destruction all the way downstream, those upstream will face wipe-out. Choosing to save those downstream at the expense of those upstream is a political Sophie’s Choice in a democracy; in China, where the Communist Party’s claim to one-party rule is its foresight and efficient management, it’s regime threatening.
And given Beijing has long dismissed criticism of both the wisdom of putting a dam in a place where a breach could result in a tsunami that could kill millions, and the concerns over shoddy construction — it will not want to admit the dam is in jeopardy until it can’t.
China has experience with catastrophic dam failures. In 1975, the collapse of the Banqiao Reservoir Dam caused more casualties than any other dam breakdown in history. The disaster killed an estimated 170,000 people and 11 million people lost their homes.
So there’ll be plenty of prayers in Beijing this weekend for its dam troubles to go away.